Before 1980, the idea of “computer for everyone” was considered as a very unlikely, if not an absurd idea. However, keep in mind that most of the advanced technology we have today started from a mere dream. It was IBM who made it possible by introducing the first computer intended for home usage, called “IBM PC (Personal Computer)” in the early 1980s. It is true that before IBM, several companies had already attempted to release a personal computer, but none of them shared the similar popularity as IBM PC. Since that time, the computer technology started to grow immensely.
In 1987, Intel introduced the first 32-bit processor 80386 which is the third generation of processor. During the next 20 years, the development of processor has been quite outstanding and nowadays we are quite familiar with the multi-core processor known as the 8th generation of processor. To practically compare the third generation processor and the 8th generation processor is virtually impossible, however, it is still possible to compare those two using a measurement of performance in MIPS (Million Instruction per Second) scale. The 80386 processor had the processing capability of 8.5 MIPS while the high-end processor introduced in 2006, Intel Core 2 Extreme is working at 57,063 MIPS, which is 6713 times faster. It is not even necessary to mention that there exists a prototype called “Intel Polaris” capable on working in 1,800,000 MIPS just to show that there is significant improvement in processor’s performance.
The capacity of computer has also been increasing rapidly. In approximately 20 years, hard drives (common non-volatile storages for computers) has evolved from a fifty two-foot diameter disks holding only five MB (5,000,000 bytes) of data to today’s drives at the size of 3.5 inches wide capable of storing one TB (1,000,000,000,000 bytes) or more. Moreover, the development of “flash memory” made it possible to have an even smaller device with decent storage capability. The smallest flash memory available commercially called microSD is only at 15mm x 11mm x 0.7mm, or about the size of a fingernail. Despite its physical size, it can store up to 8GB of data (around 1600 MP3 or 13 movies in VCD’s format!).
The most popular Operating System (OS) in the world, Microsoft Windows had only started in 1985. The first two unsuccessful versions of Windows were nowhere near the Windows we know today. They were barely called Operating System because they were merely extensions to the console-based MS-DOS and inherit the latter’s flaws and problems. The later version of Windows called the Microsoft Windows 3.0 scored a significant success. It was capable of running multi-task applications thanks to its new memory management. Another significant improvement was its user-friendly GUI (Graphical User Interface), making it possible for the PC users to enjoy better interface that previously only be enjoyed by the more exclusive Apple Macintosh users. The latest version of Microsoft Windows is called Vista that was released in 2006 as a replacement for Microsoft Windows XP. However, despite many new exciting features introduced in Vista, many people still reluctant to upgrade their system.
Computer technology may have changed a lot, however, the same thing may not necessarily true for human. Since 20 years ago, some programmers have been keeping on developing a certain useless and troublesome programs called computer virus. It is a program that can copy itself and infect a computer without permission or knowledge of the user. If anything different about developing virus 20 years ago and now, then it should be the motives. "The most significant change has been the evolution of virus writing hobbyists into criminally operated gangs bent on financial gain" said F-Secure's chief research officer Mikko Hypponen. Unfortunately, “This trend is showing no signs of stopping".
Twenty years from now everyday life is going to be very different then today's life. With the implementation of nano-robotics human being will be capable of astounding things, but by then it will seem completely normal, just as cell phones, and laptops seem normal to us now. People will have nano-robots patrolling their bodies killing viruses and cancers. They will be able to repair infected or damaged tissues and even enhance tissues that have worn down by time. This will eliminate your worries of disease and infection. Inflictions such as arthritis will be a thing of the past. Lets say you pull a muscle while lifting a box. In only a few hours or possibly much less that pain will have gone away because of the robots constantly refurbishing your entire body. Age will become less and less important, as the nano-robots get better at repairing and renewing your system, along with other medical enhancements such as artificial blood cells that will be thousands of times more capable then our natural ones. In Kurzweil's speech at TED, he said that with the replacement of only 10% of your red blood cells with artificial ones, you will be able to do things like sit at the bottom of your pool for four hours with out taking a breath, or do an Olympic style sprint for fifteen minutes with out a single breath.Drugs will come on the market that will turn on and off different genes in our bodies that control things like fat storage and protein usage. The stigma around stem cells will have long disappeared and they will be used on a everyday basis to re-grow nerves, replace/re-grow cells, and tissues. This eliminate diseases such as Diabetes, Cerebral palsy, Alzheimer's, and Parkinson's. The recovery from loosing limbs, and/or debilitating accidents will be greatly reduced. Spinal cord injury will be completely repairable. Things like teeth and hair may even be able to be re-grown. "NERONIC" replaced lost limbs with advanced mechanical, robotic limbs that connect directly to your nerves and move that same as your biological limbs do, will be a common sight twenty years from now. By this time you may even be able to choose the very genes your child receives. And this is just the beginning. By this time technological progress will be much, much faster then it was the twenty years leading up to this. I don't know about you but I find this to be amazing.
Computers will be completely integrated into our into everything from cloths to our contacts (even though we will not need contacts for visions anymore) to the paint on our walls. You will walk into a room and watch TV right on the wall. You will be able to have contacts that have computer screens on them that are showing you the internet while your at work or school. Of course everything will be wireless, probably provided by cell phone towers or maybe even satellites. Scientists will have completely reverse engineered the human brain which results in tons of major break throughs in almost all forms of medical science, computer science, and the biological sciences. The age of brain mapping struggles will be over and the age of merging biological and technological will have begun.
Synthetic massively parallel, neural networks will be the "super computers" of the twenty twenties. These machines incredibly intelligent and will have the ability to use "pattern recognition" in their thinking which therefore will allow them to make judgment calls as well as understand simple everyday things that human take for granted, like tell the different between your friend's face from your dad's face. These computers will be able to learn and pass on massive amounts of information. These machines of the future will be more like living things then computers Problems and models that have a seemly infinite number of variables such as global climate change, will be able to be solved in minutes, if not less. This is will again greatly accelerate technological progression, put us a few steps closer to complete singularity.
In the next twenty years there will be major breakthroughs in nano technology, some of which I have already described. With the adoption of nano technology the world will slowly begin engineering just about everything on the nano scale, that is five atoms at a time. We will begin using nano engineered fuel cells that are super efficient and will eventually completely fill all of our energy needs. The solar cells in solar panels for instance, will be completely nano engineered and massively more efficient. The waste of natural resources will drop down to almost nothing and the age of fossil fuels will be drawing to a close. Each metal strut, every window, and every piece of plastic, in each new building or house will have originally been constructed on the nano scale. Electronics will implement carbon nanotubing as a way to transmit data at a far faster rate then today's electronics, which by it's self will speed up all forms of computation and effectively increase the rate of technological progression. Large algorithms that used to take minutes to process, will only take tiny fractions of a second.
As far as space exploration goes, I'm not really to sure where we will be in twenty years. This type of stuff is really up in the air right now as far as I can tell. There are several companies such as Space X and Virgin, that are saying they want to privatize space exploration and are currently working on plans to do so. Weather or not they will succeed is hard to say. There are so many things that can go wrong when it comes to space. If all goes well NASA will have set up their moon base, and will be in the process of sending people to Mars. There should be a probe on it's way to explore the deep salty waters of Jupiter's moon 'Europa'. There should also be a large number of tourists visiting space every year, and maybe even staying in hotel structures orbiting the earth. Hopefully by then the use of Helium 3 as a fuel for fusion reactors will have started, allowing us to make much faster space ships. With the use of the new nanotechnologies, massively parallel neural network computers, and more advanced scientific understanding, the true age of space exploration and colonization will have began. However, like I said, it's hard to tell when it comes to space stuff.
A buddy of mine has a dream that some day he will be able to be a colonist on Mars. With Singularity and exponentially accelerating technological progression, he may live to see his dream. And I guess that, that is the point that I am trying to make here, things are changing much faster then people think. None of this is by any means 'far-fetched,' or for that matter, far away. So any of you that may think that anything in this article is not probable in our lifetimes, I urge you to look into it. I have all the sources on this website. And for everyone reading this, I recommend reading These are amazing books that explain how and why technology is progressing faster and faster much better then I can.
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